English Prediction for World Cup Favorites Sparks Backlash in Croatia

A recent prediction by English analysts regarding the main favorites for the upcoming World Cup has triggered strong reactions in Croatia, after the national team was given significantly lower chances compared to the leading contenders.

According to the forecast, the England national football team leads the list with a 17.9% probability of winning the tournament, followed by the Brazil national football team with 15.8% and the France national football team with 11.1%. Spain national football team is also among the top contenders with a 9.3% chance.

In contrast, the Croatia national football team was assigned just 1.8% probability, placing it far behind the main favorites and outside the group of serious title challengers.

The percentages quickly became the focal point of criticism, with Croatian fans and media arguing that such projections fail to reflect the team’s recent achievements. Croatia’s run to the World Cup final in 2018 and a third place finish in 2022 are cited as evidence that the team consistently outperforms expectations regardless of pre tournament odds.

Many supporters see the 1.8% figure as another example of Croatia being underestimated on the global stage, reinforcing a familiar narrative ahead of major competitions. The reaction highlights the gap between statistical models and competitive reality, with Croatia once again cast as an outsider despite its proven track record.