Global oil markets have begun showing signs of easing after crude prices surged earlier in September, with increased shipments from the Persian Gulf helping reduce concerns about an immediate supply shortage. Brent crude briefly fell toward the mid $90s as traders responded to estimates from major financial institutions and shipping analysts showing that Middle Eastern oil exports had recovered significantly from the disruption earlier this year. However, prices remain elevated, and the market continues to closely monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest estimates indicate that large volumes of crude are once again reaching international markets through Hormuz and alternative export routes. JPMorgan estimated that Middle Eastern crude flows averaged about 17.5 million barrels per day in September, roughly 98% of pre war levels. Goldman Sachs provided an even higher estimate for total Persian Gulf oil outflows, at around 23.3 million barrels per day, while noting that part of the increase is difficult to track because some vessels have reduced their electronic visibility.
Kpler data has also pointed to a substantial recovery in shipments. The different estimates do not necessarily measure exactly the same flows or use identical methodologies, meaning the precise volume of oil reaching international markets remains uncertain. With difficulties around the tracking vessels involved in so called “dark crossings,” where conventional ship tracking signals are unavailable, making estimates of Gulf exports particularly challenging during the current disruption.
Gulf Oil Flows Recover as Saudi Arabia Expands Export Options
The recovery has been supported in part by Saudi Arabia, which has increased exports and made greater use of alternative infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which provides a route from the country’s oil producing regions to Red Sea terminals without requiring every barrel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, was restarted earlier in September. The additional route has given Saudi exporters greater flexibility at a time when maritime traffic through the Gulf remains exposed to geopolitical risks.
The distinction between crude production, exports and secure deliveries is important for understanding the current market. Higher shipment volumes indicate that more oil is reaching buyers, but they do not necessarily mean transportation conditions have returned to normal. Analysts have warned that increased traffic through Hormuz reflects the oil industry’s ability to operate under continued risk rather than proof that the waterway has become completely secure.
This uncertainty has helped keep oil prices volatile. On September 30, the most active Brent contract settled at about $98 per barrel, while the expiring November contract remained above $100. West Texas Intermediate settled above $90. Those levels were below the peaks reached during the earlier stages of the conflict, but they remained significantly higher than prices seen before the disruption.
The market is also watching refined fuels separately from crude. JPMorgan estimated that Middle Eastern fuel exports were recovering much more slowly than crude flows, reaching only about 58% of their previous average in September. This difference matters because crude oil must still be processed into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel before reaching many final consumers. Disruptions at refineries and in fuel transportation can therefore keep pressure on energy markets even when crude supplies begin to recover.
Saudi Arabia’s role has become particularly important because of its ability to use multiple export routes. Goldman Sachs has estimated that Saudi crude exports increased substantially during September, while JPMorgan identified Saudi shipments as a major factor behind the recovery in flows through Hormuz. The country’s alternative infrastructure has therefore provided an additional buffer for the international market during a period of uncertainty.
Strait of Hormuz Keeps Oil Market on Alert
At the same time, the market has not completely moved beyond geopolitical risk. Reports of incidents involving commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have continued, while negotiations surrounding the wider regional conflict remain an important factor for energy traders. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations has continued issuing maritime security updates concerning incidents in the region, underscoring that higher shipping volumes do not necessarily mean that risks to commercial traffic have disappeared.
The situation has also exposed how difficult it can be to measure oil supply during a major disruption. Estimates from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Kpler and other analysts differ considerably because some shipments can be difficult to observe directly. Satellite information, port activity and other forms of market intelligence can help fill those gaps, but the result is still a less certain picture than during normal trading conditions.
For consumers and businesses, the direction of oil prices will depend on whether the recent recovery in exports can be maintained. If Gulf producers continue to move large volumes through Hormuz and alternative routes, fears of an immediate crude shortage could continue to ease. If transportation is disrupted again, however, the market could quickly rebuild a risk premium because the region remains central to global energy supplies.
The recovery therefore represents an important change in the global oil market, but not necessarily a return to normal conditions. More crude is moving, Saudi Arabia has restored additional export capacity and several analysts see Gulf flows approaching previous levels. At the same time, uncertainty over maritime security, refined fuel supplies, tracking data and the wider regional conflict continues to influence prices.
For now, the oil market is balancing two opposing signals: a significant improvement in physical crude flows and continued uncertainty over whether those flows can remain stable. The next stage will depend on the durability of Gulf exports, the condition of regional energy infrastructure and developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Until those factors become more predictable, crude prices are likely to remain sensitive to changes in supply and geopolitical conditions.
