The United States launched a fresh wave of military strikes against Iran on July 12, marking the third consecutive day of attacks as the fragile ceasefire between the two nations collapsed and Tehran retaliated by expanding its assaults across the Persian Gulf. US Central Command said the strikes began at 5 p.m. ET to “continue degrading” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor carrying one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. President Donald Trump, who declared the ceasefire “over” earlier in the week, said “we’re beating them up,” while Iran announced it had again closed the waterway and launched missile and drone attacks against multiple Gulf nations. The renewed fighting has shattered the June 17 memorandum of understanding that was intended to provide a 60 day framework for ending the war, raising fears of a wider regional conflict and sending oil prices surging.
The escalation began when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a Cyprus flagged container vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, claiming the ship had ignored approved navigation routes. US Central Command said the vessel suffered significant engine room damage and that one civilian crew member was reported missing. The US responded with strikes on approximately 140 Iranian military targets, bringing the total to more than 300 over three nights. Iran then dramatically widened its retaliation, launching missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar, which has played a central mediation role, reported three people injured by falling shrapnel, including a child, and accused Iran of being “fully legally responsible.” Bahrain activated missile alerts for the third time, while Kuwait reported an attack on an offshore oil drilling platform that injured one worker. Oman, which had hosted Iran’s foreign minister for talks just hours earlier, summoned Tehran’s ambassador in a rare public protest after drones targeted the Musandam governorate. Jordan reported three Iranian missiles falling inside the kingdom, though no casualties were reported.
The competing claims over the strait’s status have become a central flashpoint. Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority declared that “passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently not possible,” blaming US military actions. Trump countered that “it’s open. We bombed the hell out of them last night,” and insisted the waterway remains an international passage. The dispute over navigation routes lies at the heart of the collapsed ceasefire, the US has urged ships to use a southern route hugging Oman’s coast, which Iran claims violates the June memorandum. The agreement itself, signed after Pakistan mediated talks, had already frayed, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Trump claimed Iran had agreed to “a perfect deal” on Saturday before walking out and attacking a ship within the hour, though NPR was unable to confirm details of any such deal. Iranian officials privately told US advisers that the ship attacks stemmed from an “errant” hardline faction, but the White House has demanded a public acknowledgment of wrongdoing before diplomacy can resume.
The economic and geopolitical consequences are mounting rapidly. Brent crude rose more than 3% to $79.29 per barrel on July 13, reversing recent declines that had followed the June ceasefire agreement. Only six vessels transited the strait in July, the lowest number in five weeks, according to ship tracking data. The attacks have drawn widespread condemnation from regional powers, with Saudi Arabia warning that Iranian strikes threaten regional security and undermine international stability. Qatar’s prime minister held urgent talks with Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers, urging all sides to recommit to diplomacy. At the United Nations, Bahrain accused Iran of exploiting negotiations to “buy time” while continuing military operations. For a conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 and appeared to be winding down after the June deal, the latest escalation represents a dangerous reversal. With Oman, the primary mediator, now itself a target, and with Iran threatening to withdraw from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and close the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the Red Sea’s mouth, the path back to negotiations looks increasingly treacherous. The question is no longer whether the ceasefire can be salvaged, but whether the region can avoid a full scale war that neither side appears able to win decisively.
