With the 98th Academy Awards set for March 15 at Los Angeles’ Dolby Theatre, the race for the top prizes is narrowing into a high-stakes duel, while organizers are simultaneously weighing how the ceremony should look and feel amid heightened Middle East tensions that could reshape the traditional red-carpet rollout.
Best Picture and the Top-Line Favorites
Current forecasts increasingly frame Best Picture as a two-film contest between “One Battle After Another” (directed by Paul Thomas Anderson) and “Sinners” (directed by Ryan Coogler). Industry indicators cited in recent analysis point to guild momentum favoring “One Battle After Another,” while “Sinners” retains a powerful narrative as the season’s nomination leader.
On nominations, “Sinners” is described as having 16 Oscar nominations, while “One Battle After Another” is credited with 13. A separate group of titles—“Frankenstein,” “Marty Vrhoven,” and “Sentimental Value”—is noted as sitting at nine nominations each.
The Academy’s voting timeline has also tightened the window for last-minute shifts: final voting is reported to have ended on March 5, with this year’s nominations previously announced on January 22, 2026.
Acting Races: Momentum Shifts and “Lock” Talk
In Best Actor, the race is described as increasingly competitive between Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet, with recent awards-season results fueling a late surge narrative for Jordan.
In Best Actress, commentary characterizes Jessie Buckley as the clear front-runner—citing a sweep of major precursors (including Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and a major acting-awards win) for her performance in “Hamnet.”
Recent major acting-awards outcomes also reinforce the volatility of the final stretch, with reporting highlighting headline wins for Michael B. Jordan and Jessie Buckley, alongside Sean Penn and Amy Madigan in supporting categories.
Red Carpet in Question Amid “Epic Fury” War Backdrop
Behind the glamour, organizers are reported to be gaming out multiple contingency scenarios—including the most drastic option: scrapping the red carpet entirely—out of concern that a lavish pre-show spectacle could project the wrong message while the Middle East military operation described as “Epic Fury” continues.
One detail repeatedly cited in coverage is the uncertainty around planned décor—specifically, Japanese maple trees meant to symbolize “peace and longevity”—and whether that symbolism could read as inappropriate or even ironic under current circumstances. At the same time, other sources close to the event insist plans have not formally changed yet, underscoring that the red-carpet decision remains fluid.
Iranian Nominees Add an Extra Layer of Sensitivity
Alongside geopolitical concerns, reporting notes an additional pressure point: the presence of Iranian filmmakers among this year’s nominees, which could intensify political scrutiny and on-camera questioning. Names cited include Jafar Panahi (for “It Was Just an Accident”) and documentary filmmakers Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (for “Cutting Through Rocks”).
Separate reporting further specifies that “It Was Just an Accident” is referenced as being nominated for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, while “Cutting Through Rocks” is referenced in connection with Best Documentary recognition.
Ceremony Basics: When It Airs and What’s on the Show
The ceremony is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. Eastern, with red-carpet programming starting 30 minutes earlier, and Conan O’Brien is listed as returning as host for a second year. Coverage also indicates that the show will include some live music performances tied to the Original Song field—specifically mentioning “Golden” (from “K-Pop Demon Hunters”) and “I Lied to You” (from “Sinners”)—while other nominated songs are expected to appear via produced video segments.
