Global temperatures have once again exceeded the critical 1.5°C threshold, while drought conditions and increasingly unpredictable weather are raising concerns across southeastern Europe.
The world is almost certain to experience its second-warmest year since modern records began, according to the latest analysis by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Following the record-breaking heat of 2024, global temperatures have once again exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Copernicus estimates that 2026 will finish between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above the pre-industrial average, making it the second calendar year to cross that mark after 2024.
The latest figures, released on November 5, show that October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded globally. The average global surface air temperature reached 15.35°C, or 1.75°C above the estimated pre-industrial level.
October was also the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
According to Copernicus, there is approximately an 80 percent probability that 2026 will become the second-warmest year on record, while the chance of matching or surpassing the record set in 2024 stands at around 20 percent.
The consequences are being felt across the planet, with oceans continuing to absorb enormous amounts of excess heat. Global sea-surface temperatures remained exceptionally high in October, reaching a record for that month outside the polar regions.
The Mediterranean and the Balkans remain among the regions exposed to serious climate risks. Copernicus data for October show that much of the Balkans experienced drier-than-average conditions, while exceptionally low river flows persisted across parts of central and eastern Europe, including the Danube basin.
For North Macedonia and neighboring countries, prolonged dry periods and extreme heat pose growing challenges for agriculture, water resources, forests and public health.
The impact of rising temperatures is particularly concerning for agriculture, where reduced soil moisture and irregular rainfall can threaten crop yields and increase pressure on already limited water supplies. Urban areas are also vulnerable, especially where green spaces and infrastructure capable of reducing extreme heat are lacking.
The latest figures underline the urgency of preparing for a warmer and more unpredictable climate. Governments and local authorities will need to strengthen water management, improve agricultural resilience, expand urban green infrastructure and reinforce forest-fire prevention measures.
Copernicus also stresses that exceeding 1.5°C in a single calendar year does not, by itself, mean that the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limit has been formally breached. That target is measured over a longer period. Nevertheless, the continued rise in global temperatures is a clear warning of how rapidly the climate is changing.
