U.S. stocks pushed higher into late February as a tech-driven rally regained momentum ahead of closely watched Nvidia results, even as investors continued to weigh uncertainty around trade policy and how rapidly artificial intelligence could reshape parts of the economy. A broad Reuters poll of market strategists still sees the S&P 500 ending 2026 around 7,500—roughly a 10% gain from late February levels—supported by expectations for solid earnings and steady growth, though many also see meaningful downside risks in the near term.
Stocks climb as “AI disruption” worries cool ahead of Nvidia
Wall Street’s major indexes finished higher as investors leaned back into chip and technology shares, with the Nasdaq leading gains. The Dow rose 0.63%, the S&P 500 added 0.81%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.26%, as markets touched two-week highs and investors treated recent AI-related anxiety—particularly fears about disruption and the cost of building AI infrastructure—as less dominant than the potential upside from the technology. NVIDIA, a central bellwether for the AI trade, reported quarterly revenue of $68.13 billion that topped expectations, sending its shares about 3% higher in extended trading. Semiconductor shares also benefited, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index up 1.6%.
Earnings and guidance drive big single-stock moves
Company results and outlooks produced sharp moves beneath the surface. Axon Enterprise surged 17.6% after the company beat fourth-quarter profit estimates. By contrast, guidance weighed on several names: First Solar and Lowe’s both issued weaker-than-expected annual sales outlooks, pushing shares down 13.6% and 5.6%, respectively; housing and homebuilder shares fell after Lowe’s report, even as the Mortgage Bankers Association data cited in coverage showed the 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate dipped to a 3½-year low. GoDaddy dropped 14.3% after forecasting annual revenue below expectations. On the consumer staples side, Brown-Forman and Molson Coors slid after Diageo projected a 2%–3% organic sales decline in 2026 and cut its interim dividend in half.
Pre-market focus: Nvidia, software scrutiny, and a macro crosscurrent
Before the open, futures pointed to a slightly higher start as investors positioned for Nvidia’s report and digested major economic messaging. Futures tied to the Dow and S&P 500 were up about 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures gained roughly 0.5%. Markets were also tracking cross-asset signals: Bitcoin rebounded from an intraday low cited near $62,500 to about $66,000; gold futures rose 0.5% to $5,200 an ounce, WTI crude gained 0.8% to $66.15 per barrel; and the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.06%. Alongside Nvidia, attention remained on software earnings after a period of sector weakness, with Salesforce also on the calendar; estimates referenced for Salesforce included adjusted EPS of $3.05 on revenue of $11.18 billion.
Where strategists see the year ending—and what could derail it
Despite the late-February rebound, the market’s broader 2026 narrative remains a tug-of-war between upbeat earnings expectations and persistent macro and structural risks. In a Reuters poll of 44 strategists, analysts, and portfolio managers, the median forecast put the S&P 500 at about 7,500 by the end of 2026, implying roughly a 9.7% gain from the index’s late-February close cited at 6,837.75. The same polling set a year-end target for the Dow around 52,000. At the same time, a majority of respondents to an additional question said a market correction over the next three months was likely.
Strategists cited several potential fault lines: inflation and what it could mean for Federal Reserve policy, uncertainty around trade and tariffs, and the market’s ongoing repricing of companies seen as vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. Reuters reporting noted the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio around 21.6 and highlighted that software shares had fallen roughly 23% since Dec. 31 amid investor concerns about AI tools reshaping the sector. Even so, technology was still expected to lead earnings growth, with analysts’ expectations cited for 2026 tech earnings growth at 33%, while overall S&P 500 earnings growth expectations were put at 14.8%.
