Air travel could become noticeably more expensive in the coming period as jet fuel prices rise at a much faster pace than crude oil, increasing pressure on airline operating costs and, ultimately, on passengers.
Market data indicate that the sharp increase in fuel costs followed the outbreak of war involving Iran, with jet fuel recording significantly steeper gains than Brent crude. Since late February, prices for aviation fuel in northwestern Europe have climbed by around 120 percent, while in the United States the increase has reached roughly 82 percent. Over the same period, Brent crude rose by about 50 percent, moving above 100 dollars per barrel.
This widening gap between the price of crude oil and refined jet fuel is creating a serious challenge for carriers. Fuel remains one of the biggest airline expenses, second only to labor, and the impact is particularly pronounced for airlines that are less protected against sudden market swings.
In the United States, many carriers do not rely heavily on fuel hedging, leaving them more exposed to abrupt price increases. As costs rise, some airlines have already begun passing part of the burden onto travelers. United Airlines has increased baggage fees by 10 dollars, shortly after JetBlue introduced a similar move, while executives have signaled that broader price adjustments may follow.
According to data cited by Deutsche Bank, the average price of a domestic flight in the US is already about 50 percent higher than a year ago when purchased three weeks in advance.
European airlines are, in general, somewhat better insulated from immediate shocks because a number of them secured fuel supplies earlier at lower prices. Ryanair, for example, has reportedly locked in about 80 percent of its fuel needs at lower rates through next spring. Even so, not all carriers are shielded from the pressure.
Lufthansa Group is considering cuts to less profitable routes and the earlier retirement of older aircraft as it responds to the unstable geopolitical environment. Scandinavian Airlines has also announced the cancellation of around 1,000 flights this month because of the steep rise in fuel costs.
Despite the growing financial strain on airlines, demand for travel remains strong. That resilience is giving carriers more room to raise fares and fees without a major drop in passenger numbers, suggesting that higher ticket prices may soon become a broader trend across the industry.
